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November 3, 2008
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Obama, Taylor Win
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Proposals 1 and 2: winners by a nose
Blue Cross on tap for Lame Duck
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LANSING --- With one day before voters go to the polls, the final tracking survey of Lansing political insiders gives the election to Barack Obama and Justice Cliff Taylor in their races in Michigan. Members of the Capitol Caucus also say that Proposal 1* (Medical Marijuana) and Proposal 2 (Stem Cells) will take narrow victories on Tuesday.
"The insiders are clearly predicting a landslide win for Obama in Michigan," said Robert Kolt, President & CEO of Kolt Communications. "The proposal predictions are mixed, and everyone who should know thinks the winning percentages will be slim."
In a poll taken Oct. 28-31, the Capitol Caucus was asked:
1) What percentage of the vote in Michigan will Barack Obama receive?
2) What percentage of the vote will Justice Cliff Taylor receive?
3) What percentage of the vote will Prop. 1 (Medical Marijuana) receive?
4) What percentage of the vote will Prop. 2 (Stem Cells) receive?
Barack Obama was favored at an average of 55%, up three from 52% in October. Not a single caucus member predicted a McCain win.
Taylor remains ahead, but dropped three from 56% to 53%. Still, only three Caucus members said Taylor would get less than 50% of the Election Day vote.
Predictions on Proposal 1 and 2 were a little more murky. While Prop. 1 is favored for passage by nearly 80% of respondents, the average vote percentage was only 52%. Prop. 2 had fully 43% of the Caucus predicting a loss at the polls, with an average vote score of only 51%
“This presidential election cycle has lasted nearly two years and has been full of surprises. Of all the surprises none is bigger than the fact that it appears the presidential campaign in Michigan will end without any sense of suspense. Despite the best efforts of Michigan Republicans to fight to the finish, few in the Caucus expect those efforts to bear fruit for the presidential campaign. If, however, they help to return Chief Justice Taylor to the court and to preserve Republican house seats at the state and congressional levels, then those efforts will be judged as a surprising success. ” said Michael Meyers, president of TargetPoint Consulting.
Lastly, the Caucus was asked to predict: “What will be the highest profile legislative initiative completed during the Lame Duck session?”
Those working on the BCBS market reforms should expect to be busy during Lame Duck. More than 45% of the Caucus selected that as the top issue to be tackled in Lame Duck. On the other hand, a strong minority, 26%, suggest that nothing will be done on any issues. Other issues mentioned include several bills effecting the City of Detroit directly, including Cobo Hall expansion, school reform, bailouts and electoral reforms (Council Ward Elections).
“For anyone looking for something exciting, Lame Duck looks like it will live up to its name,” said Matt Resch, vice president of the Sterling Corporation. “Aside from the much talked about and anticipated BCBS legislation, people on the inside think, and many of them hope, the Legislature is already in the mood for the holidays.”
Other items to look for on the agenda include education reforms (redefining Class One districts), a push for a gas tax hike, the creation of toll roads in the state and a public smoking ban. Only two people mentioned MBT and surcharge reforms. Interestingly, no one suggested preparing for, or reacting to a GM/Chrysler merger, and no one anticipated dealing with budget cuts or property tax relief.
The Capitol Caucus is a new poll of Michigan’s political and government elite. The purpose: get an outside look at what only the insiders know about Michigan politics, government and the campaign trail. Answers to the questions are kept confidential to insure candor in the responses given, and caucus attendance is maintained to get a representative and accurate sampling of opinion.
Sign up to receive the Capitol Caucus report, suggest questions, petition for membership and view past polls at: www.thecapitolcaucus.com.
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