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February 3, 2009
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Brooks Bluffing; Dillon Doubtful
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Lansing insiders say Bing and Cockrel to face off
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LANSING --- After a holiday hiatus, the Capitol Caucus returns today in honor of Governor Granholm’s 7th State of the State Address, the unofficial start to the legislative year in Lansing.
With some mixed results in picking the winners and losers on Nov. 4, the poll of Lansing political insiders now turns its attention to upcoming races for Mayor of Detroit and Governor of Michigan and the looming legislative session.
In a poll taken Jan. 27-29, members of the Capitol Caucus were asked:
1. Will Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson run for Governor?
2. Will Speaker of the House Andy Dillon run for Governor?
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Editor for a Day
Members of the Capitol Caucus were asked to write a headline for the story in tomorrow’s paper reporting on Governor Granholm’s 7th State of the State Address.
Jobs and Economy
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!
“Michigan will ride out global economic storm�
Gov: “We’re Poised For Growth�
Granholm Vows to Work for Jobs, Reform Government, and Protect Pocketbooks
Feel the Breeze
Granholm promises again...four years, you’re going to be blown away
Michigan is Blown Away, Unemployment Up, Deficit Up
Still Waiting; After All These Years
Blown Away
Dust in the Wind: Granholm Admits Michigan Has Been Blown Away
The Alternative
Michigan Will be the Center of the 21st Century Auto Industry
Nation Follows MI's Green Lead: alternative energy is effective job creator
Granholm Optimistic in Spite of Sour Economy: Sees Growth in Alternative Energy, Technology
Buzzword Bingo
Granholm Pledges Government Restructuring
Granholm to Legislature on Reforms: I'll Do It Myself
Granholm Proposes Government Restructuring
A New, Improved State Government
Governor Streamlines State Government
Granholm Calls for Overhaul |
An overwhelming majority of 75 percent believes that Brooks is bluffing and won’t run for Governor.
A Dillon run is doubtful too, according to respondents. Sixty percent of Caucus members say the Speaker will pass up a chance to challenge Lt. Governor John Cherry for the Democratic nomination.
“There’s no doubt that the political junkie interest meter goes through the roof if this race includes Brooks and if the Democratic contest comes down to Cherry v. Dillon,� said Matt Resch of the Sterling Corporation. “Problem is, the political insiders think Brooks is bluffing and Dillon is doubtful.�
The Caucus was also asked, “Who will be the two winners in the upcoming mayoral primary in the City of Detroit? Dave Bing; Ken Cockrel, Jr.; Warren Evans; Freman Hendrix; Nicholas Hood; Sharon McPhail; Coleman Young, Jr.; Other
Bing and Cockrel emerged as the leading vote getters for the Mayoral primary with 60 percent selecting Bing and 71 percent selecting Cockrel. A little more than half selected both Bing and Cockrel as the most likely to emerge.
Freman Hendrix came in a distant third with about one-third selecting him as one of the two winners, followed by Young (14 percent), Evans (11 percent), McPhail (6 percent) and Hood (3 percent).
“Detroit elections have proven difficult to predict over the past several cycles – befuddling established pollsters and pundits alike,� said Michael Meyers, president of TargetPoint Consulting. “The Caucus has ratified Cockrel and Bing as the conventional wisdom choices. We will see if that wisdom shines though on Primary Day. Hendrix gets a strong nod of consideration from members of the Caucus, and he and other contenders certainly have time to change or upset the conventional wisdom.�
In addition to questions on the pending horse races, the Capitol Caucus was also asked to write a headline for the Governor’s State of the State tonight (see right) and to weigh in on Lansing’s spring legislative agenda.
"The caucus insiders don't see any good headlines from the Governor's big speech," said Robert Kolt, President & CEO of Kolt Communications. "This is a year the Governor needs to know anything she says is likely to get a negative headline spin in the papers, so give the speech, get it done, and push forward."
Lastly, the group was asked: What will be the Legislature's most significant PRE-MEMORIAL DAY accomplishment?
Reflecting the views of many public opinion polls, the group is very pessimistic about the Legislature and its ability to create any new ideas or accomplish any homegrown goals before Memorial Day.
Nearly 3 in 10 think simple adjournment (or nothing) would be the biggest accomplishment. Another 2 in 10 feel dealing with the windfall from the Obama stimulus package would make up the most significant accomplishment. Other items cited include reforming Corrections, changing the Michigan Business Tax, BCBS reform (items left undone from last year) and passing a balanced budget.
The Capitol Caucus is a poll of Michigan’s political and government elite. The purpose: get an outside look at what only the insiders know about Michigan politics, government and the campaign trail. Answers to the questions are kept confidential to insure candor in the responses given, and caucus attendance is maintained to get a representative and accurate sampling of opinion.
Sign up to receive the Capitol Caucus report, suggest questions, petition for membership and view past polls at: www.thecapitolcaucus.com.
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